The use of air conditioning (AC) worldwide is increasing significantly and is expected to continue growing in the coming decades. Currently, cooling systems such as air conditioners and electric fans account for nearly 20% of the total electricity used in buildings globally, which translates to about 10% of total global electricity consumption. This is driven by rising incomes and improving living standards, especially in developing countries with hot climates (IEA) (IEA).
By 2050, the global demand for air conditioning is projected to triple, with the number of air conditioning units increasing from 1.6 billion today to 5.6 billion. This surge will be a major driver of global electricity demand, requiring new electricity capacity equivalent to the combined capacity of the United States, the European Union, and Japan today (IEA).
Countries such as China, India, and Indonesia are expected to see the most significant increases in AC use. In India, for instance, the proportion of electricity used for air conditioning could rise from the current 10% to 45% by 2050 (Tech Xplore).
Despite the rapid growth, air conditioning penetration remains low in many of the hottest regions. Currently, only about 8% of the 2.8 billion people living in these areas have access to indoor cooling, compared to over 90% in countries like the United States and Japan (IEA) (Tech Xplore).
The environmental and economic impacts of this growth are substantial. Increased demand for cooling will necessitate large investments in new power plants, particularly to meet peak power demands at night. This is compounded by the fact that many of the air conditioners being sold are not energy-efficient. The efficiency of AC units varies widely, with those in Japan and the EU being about 25% more efficient than those in the US and China (IEA) (Tech Xplore).
To address these challenges, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recommends implementing stringent minimum energy performance standards and other measures to improve the efficiency of air conditioners. Such policies could halve the energy growth from AC demand, potentially saving up to $2.9 trillion in investments, fuel, and operating costs (IEA) (Tech Xplore).
Improving AC efficiency is crucial for managing future energy demand and reducing environmental impacts. It would also make cooling more affordable and accessible, enhancing comfort and quality of life in many parts of the world.
